How to tell if a prospect is actually in market
Most accounts on your list are not buying right now. Here is how to spot the ones that are, using signals you can check, and how to confirm it without guessing.
On this page
- Fit tells you who could buy, but only a recent, specific action tells you who is buying now.
- The 95:5 rule from 2021 suggests that only about 1 in 20 business accounts is in market for a given category at any one time, so most of your list is not buying today.
- In the 6sense 2025 buyer study, first contact with a vendor happened 61% of the way through the journey, so you need to spot buyers before they raise a hand.
- Two or more independent signals from the same account within a few weeks are stronger evidence than any single signal.
- The cheapest confirmation of in-market status is a direct question about timing, asked after a signal gives you a reason to reach out.
A prospect is in market when you can see a recent, specific action that only makes sense if they are shopping: comparing vendors on G2, visiting your pricing page, hiring for the role your product supports, a new leader arriving, or engaging with posts about the problem you solve. Fit alone tells you nothing about timing. Look for two or more signals from the same account within a few weeks, then confirm by asking. Most accounts on any list are not buying right now.
Why most of your list is not in market
Start with the base rate. In 2021, Prof. John Dawes of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, working with the LinkedIn B2B Institute, estimated that up to 95% of businesses are not in market for most goods and services at any one time. People call this the 95:5 rule.
The estimate rests on an assumed average B2B repurchase cycle of about five years. If buyers replace a product every five years, one fifth of the market decides in a given year and about one twentieth decides in a given quarter. Applied to a 10,000-account ICP, that puts roughly 500 accounts in market at any moment.
Treat the number as a starting point. It is not a law. Marketing Week noted that 95% is not precise for every sector, because repurchase cycles differ by category. A tool bought on a monthly card has a very different cycle from an ERP system. The point still holds: if you treat every good-fit account as a live prospect, you will spend most of your effort on companies that cannot buy this quarter. That gap explains why leads that look perfect on paper never reply.
What does an in-market buyer do before they talk to you?
They do most of the work without you. The 6sense Buyer Experience Report 2025 surveyed nearly 4,000 buyers. It is vendor research, so read it with that in mind. It found:
| Measure (6sense, 2025 report) | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Point in the journey where buyers first contact a vendor | 69% | 61% |
| Average buying cycle length | 11.3 months | 10.1 months |
| Vendors evaluated on average | not reviewed | 5 |
| Shortlist spots filled on Day One | not reviewed | 4 of 5 |
The same report says the winning vendor was already on the Day One shortlist 95% of the time. It also says 94% of buyers ranked their shortlist by preference before they contacted any vendor.
A frequently quoted Gartner figure says buyers spend about 17% of purchase time meeting suppliers. Note the difference between that metric and the 6sense one. The 17% describes time spent with sellers. The 61% describes when first contact happens. Many pages blur the two together. We did not review Gartner's primary release, and the related figures that circulate on secondary sites contradict each other, so we would not build a plan on them.
What this means in practice: by the time someone fills in your demo form, they have probably already picked a favourite. To get on the shortlist, you have to notice the buyer while they are still researching.
Which signals show a prospect is in market?
Signals fall into a few families. Each one sees a different part of the journey and fails in a different way.
| Signal type | Examples | What it tells you | Main limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-party | Pricing page visits, demo requests, trial activity, gated downloads | They know you and are looking closely | Only sees people who already found your site |
| Second-party | G2 or TrustRadius category and comparison views | They are comparing vendors | G2 often relies on third-party matching, such as ZoomInfo, to identify companies, which loses accuracy |
| Third-party | Topic and keyword consumption across publisher networks | They are researching the category, possibly before they know you | Needs identity resolution, and quality varies by provider |
| Event | New leader, funding, hiring for a relevant role | Something changed that often triggers a purchase | Shows a reason to buy, not the act of buying |
| Engagement | Comments and reactions on posts about the problem | A named person cares about the topic this week | Noisy alone, because people react to posts for many reasons |
| Zero-party | Answers on a survey or intake form | They told you directly | Only exists after they engage |
For more on the first two rows, see first-party vs third-party intent data. For event signals, hiring signals from job posts and the job-change trigger playbook cover the mechanics.
One claim shows up on vendor blogs: a new CTO tends to start evaluating tools within 60 to 90 days. We could not find a source for it. Treat it as a reasonable hunch, not a measured window.
How do you tell a real buying signal from noise?
A single signal is a lead. Several signals together make a case. Run every account through four checks.
Is it recent?
A pricing page visit from last week matters. One from last quarter mostly does not. Signals lose value fast, which is why speed to lead matters as much as the signal.
Is it specific to your category?
Someone reading a general post about sales productivity is weak evidence. Someone comparing two named tools in your category on G2 is strong evidence.
Is it stacked?
Look for independent signals that point the same way. Say an account posts a RevOps job, a new VP Sales arrives, and two people on that team comment on a post about pipeline tooling, all inside three weeks. That account is far more likely to be in market than one with a single reaction.
Is it a person or just an account?
Account-level intent tells you a company is warm. It does not tell you who to write to. Named engagement from someone in the buying group gives you both. A simple points model, like the one in lead scoring for LinkedIn engagement, turns these four checks into a ranking.
How to check in-market status by hand
You can do this without any tool. These are the steps in order, with our rough guess at the time each one takes per account.
- Check your own data: CRM notes, site analytics, and trial signups for the domain. About 3 minutes.
- Check the company's open job posts for roles your product supports. About 3 minutes.
- Check LinkedIn for leadership changes in the last 90 days and for recent posts from the relevant team. About 5 minutes.
- Check for funding or acquisition news. About 2 minutes.
- Write down the signals with dates and decide whether at least two are recent and point the same way.
That comes to about 15 minutes per account. Fine for 20 accounts a week. Not realistic for 2,000. The manual method also fails in two ways. You only see what you think to check, and the data is stale by the time you get through the list.
Confirm it by asking
Signals are probabilities. The cheapest confirmation is a direct question, asked once you have a real reason to write. Reference the trigger, then ask about timing: "Saw you're hiring two SDRs. Are you sorting out tooling for them this quarter, or later in the year?" A clear "later" is useful. Mark it, and come back when the date arrives.
Where Saava fits
Saava covers the engagement and event part of this: it watches LinkedIn for buying signals, scores the people involved against your ICP, and sends outreach from the LinkedIn account or email you connect yourself. It does not see your website analytics or G2 comparison data, so if those matter for your category, you will want them from another source. The manual steps above work fine at low volume, and Saava is mainly useful when the list gets too big to check by hand.
FAQ
What percentage of my target accounts are in market right now?
Under the 95:5 rule from 2021, about 5%, or 1 in 20, for a category with a five-year repurchase cycle. Shorter cycles push the share up and longer cycles push it down. We don't know the exact figure for your category.
Is intent data accurate enough to act on?
It depends on the source. First-party data is accurate but narrow. Third-party data is broad but relies on identity resolution, and quality varies by vendor. Use it to rank accounts, not to assume a deal exists.
How many signals do I need before I reach out?
One good signal is enough reason to send a relevant message. Two or more recent, independent signals from the same account justify spending more time, such as reaching several people in the buying group.
What if a prospect says they are not buying now?
Ask when they will be, and log the date. A clear timeline is worth more than a vague yes, and the account will still be a good fit when it comes back into market.
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